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      Industry dynamics

      Industry dynamics

      The collective decline in profits in the first half of the year and the third quarter of the iron and steel industry are still in play


      Shanghai Stock Exchange China Securities Network News (reporter Wang Wensheng) Hualing Iron and Steel Co. released its half-year performance on August 16, showing that in the first six months of this year, the company realized 48.337 billion yuan in business income, an increase of 11.17% over the same period of last year; the total profit of the company was 3.738 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.09% over the same period of last year; the net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies was 2.237 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.94% over the same period of

      In the view of Sino-Thai iron and steel researchers, in fact, Hualing Iron and Steel's profit decline has been far better than the industry. Almost all the steel enterprises that have published semi-annual reports or performance forecasts have seen a sharp decline in profits, such as Liugang's shares fell 38%, Chongqing's steel fell 19.19%, and Shagang's shares fell 55.97%.

      For the decline in net profit, Hualing Iron and Steel has given specific reasons: accelerated release of new production capacity of iron and steel, rising prices of raw materials such as iron ore, and falling prices of steel.

      Wang Guoqing, director of Langer Iron and Steel Research Center, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the main reason for the decline in profits of steel enterprises in the first half of the year was that compared with the same period last year, steel prices fell slightly, but iron ore costs rose sharply. However, some mining areas in Vale recently announced resumption of production, while Australian mines have resumed production, iron ore production in the second half of the year will increase slightly compared with the first half, and iron ore supply gap will gradually repair. In the second half of the year, the demand for iron ore will be weakened and the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore will be improved.

      For the future market, Wang Guoqing believes that due to the recent extreme weather such as typhoon, the downstream transaction of iron and steel has not improved. However, due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, steel output has a ring-to-ring downward trend, which will ease the supply pressure of the market. In addition, the steelmaking price will show a narrow oscillation pattern in the later period as a whole.

      Mysteel Steel analysts believe that the support point of steel prices in the second half of the year still exists, but in the near future, due to the obvious decline in demand, steel prices have fallen back as a whole, and long-term steel is still stronger than plate in terms of varieties.

      Steel industry analysts from securities firms are relatively optimistic. According to the latest research report of China-Thailand Securities and other institutions, the phenomenon of steel plant overhaul has increased in recent years, and the regulation mechanism of profit decline on production has begun to show obvious effect, and the excessive shrinkage of tonnage steel profit in earlier period is expected to be repaired. In July, real estate investment data remained strong, reflecting that real demand did not weaken year-on-year, and the cyclical decline in demand was only a seasonal factor. The decline of steel and raw material prices in July and August implies the pessimistic expectation of the market for demand. Without a substantial contraction in demand, and with the coming of the golden nine silver ten peak season, the market expectation is expected to recover upwards, bringing about a phased rebound in steel prices and stock prices.

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